Executive order on most Canadian goods; Canada retaliates on $30B but excludes seafood
Feb 3, 2025
30-day pause agreed
Trump-Trudeau call produces temporary suspension
Mar 4, 2025
Tariffs take effect
25% tariffs imposed on Canadian goods in full
Mar 6, 2025
CUSMA exemption issued
Executive order exempts CUSMA-compliant goods — Canadian snow crab excluded from tariff
Mar 20, 2025
China 25% tariff
China imposes 25% levy on Canadian snow crab and lobster
Apr–Jul 2025
Front-loading surge
Imports 163% above normal as industry rushes product across border
Nov 14, 2025
Ag tariff rollback
Trump rolls back tariffs on coffee, beef, cocoa, bananas — political cost of grocery inflation
Feb 2026
IEEPA struck down
Supreme Court invalidates IEEPA tariff authority; new 10% global tariff under 1974 statute
Mar 1, 2026
China tariff removed
Carney-Xi deal eliminates 25% Chinese tariff on Canadian crab and lobster
Jul 1, 2026
CUSMA review begins
Formal six-year review — rules of origin for Canadian food products at risk
Key finding: Canadian snow crab was never subject to an actual US tariff in 2025 — CUSMA rules of origin provided exemption. Market impact was driven by uncertainty and precautionary behavior. The 2026 risk shifts to the CUSMA review beginning July 1.