The Dec-Mar wholesale price is a directional indicator. When prices are stable or rising through the pre-season, the available supply has been absorbed and conditions are in place for a normal season. When prices are declining, buyers have unsold inventory and market power shifts to their side. Since 1998, there have been seven years when the March price was lower than January. In those years, prices generally did not recover during the sales season. The 2026-27 signal is positive: prices rose steadily from December through March, confirming a dry market with no carryover overhang. The signal tells us the market will be healthy if opening prices are set where buyers can commit. It does not predict what that price will be.