Figure 11
Consumer Sentiment and Crab's Market
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, monthly, Jan 2019 – Mar 2026 (prelim)
55.5
March 2026 (prelim)
Down 25% from Dec 2024
46%
Consumers citing high prices
7 months above 40%
3.4%
Year-ahead inflation
expectations (Mar 2026)
Consumer sentiment collapsed from 74.0 in December 2024 to 51.0 in November 2025 and has barely recovered, sitting at 55.5 in the March 2026 preliminary reading. The decline has been broad-based: tariff uncertainty through 2025, rising food and fuel costs, and the Iran conflict beginning February 28, 2026 have all contributed. Nearly half of consumers spontaneously cite high prices as eroding their personal finances. For crab, this matters directly: at $10+ wholesale and $12+ retail, snow crab is priced out of the range where most households will buy it. Consumer willingness to commit to premium seafood tracks sentiment closely, and sentiment is near its lowest level since the pandemic.
Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers via FRED (UMCSENT). March 2026 is preliminary.