Figure 13
The K-Shaped Consumer Economy
Share of total US consumer spending by income group, quarterly, Q1 2019 – Q3 2025
+29%
Food prices since 2020
(BLS Food at Home CPI)
25%
Of BNPL users financing
grocery purchases (up from 14%)
$12+
Retail crab price per lb
beyond reach of bottom 80%
The US economy is K-shaped: spending power is concentrating at the top while the bottom 80% falls further behind. The top 20% of households now account for roughly 60% of all consumer spending, up from 54% before the pandemic. The bottom 80% has dropped to about 40%, a record low. Food prices are up 29% since 2020. 25% of Buy Now, Pay Later users are financing grocery purchases, up from 14% a year ago. At current retail prices, crab is increasingly out of reach for many consumers who previously did not think buying crab was an issue for them. The consumer base is narrowing, which makes the crab market more exposed to price volatility if something unexpected happens.
Sources: Moody's Analytics / Federal Reserve (spending share estimates, Q2 2025); LendingTree (BNPL survey); BLS Food at Home CPI