Figure 14 — Macro Headwinds: Tariffs, Oil, and the Consumer Outlook

Tariffs

+2.8%

Estimated food price increase from 2025 tariff actions (Yale Budget Lab)

3-7%

Additional food price increases expected Apr-Oct 2026 as costs pass through

Snow crab exempt under USMCA, but tariffs on other goods raise overall food costs and reduce consumer spending power for discretionary items like crab. Retailers absorbed ~80% of tariff costs in 2025; expected to pass through in 2026.

Iran War and Oil

$106

Brent crude per barrel (Mar 16), up 47% from $72 pre-war (Feb 27)

+$0.60

Gasoline price increase per gallon since Feb 27 ($2.98 to $3.58 avg)

Higher diesel prices raise transportation and cold chain costs throughout the seafood supply chain. Economists estimate March inflation could reach 1% monthly, the highest in four years. Consumer sentiment dropped during the nine days of conflict covered by the March survey.

Inflation Expectations

3.4%

Year-ahead inflation expectations (Mar 2026), ending 6-month decline

+29%

Cumulative food-at-home price increase since Jan 2020 (BLS CPI)

Consumers have absorbed six years of compounding food price increases. Even with lower headline inflation, the price level has not come down. When asked, 46% of consumers spontaneously cite high prices as their primary financial concern.

Timeline: Compounding Pressures, 2025-2026

Jan 2025

New tariff actions begin; consumer sentiment drops from 74.0 to 71.7

Mar 2025

Sentiment falls to 57.0 as tariff scope expands; food prices +2.8% from tariffs alone

Nov 2025

Sentiment hits 51.0 (year low); middle-income cohorts pull back on restaurant spending

Feb 28, 2026

US-Israel military action begins against Iran; oil jumps from $72 to $90+ within days

Mar 9, 2026

Brent crude at $106/bbl; US gasoline up 20%; sentiment falls to 55.5 (prelim)

Apr-Oct 2026

Tariff cost pass-through expected to hit food retail (Yale: additional 3-7% on food categories)

These three pressures are compounding. Tariffs raised costs across the economy in 2025, with the full pass-through to food retail expected in mid-2026, precisely when new-season crab will be entering the market. The Iran conflict has spiked oil and diesel prices, raising transportation and cold chain costs and squeezing consumer budgets further. Inflation expectations have reversed their six-month decline. For the crab market, the practical effect is that the consumer who was already stretched by six years of food price increases now faces additional pressure from fuel costs, tariff pass-through, and economic uncertainty. This is the environment in which producers must set an opening price that generates volume commitments.