The Gulf premium over NL 5-8 on the UB Low quotation has been modest over the full 2015–2026 period, averaging $0.18/lb overall but widening materially in the 2023–2024 cycle as Gulf supply tightened relative to NL. In 2025 the spread averaged $0.54/lb, reflecting the Gulf’s differentiated position in foodservice and Asian channels. In 2026, proportional quota cuts to both regions are forecast to stabilize the Gulf’s share of combined supply rather than expand it, and we expect the premium to moderate.