Three models, one range. The scenario bands are informed by three independent model specifications, all built on 23 years of US customs transaction data. The March anchor model ($8.77) uses the March customs price as its baseline and asks how much the season opening typically pulls back from the off-season level. The UB buyer anchor model ($8.04) uses the volume-weighted Urner Barry NL 5-8 oz price that buyers actually paid during PY2025 ($8.35/lb, April through July) and asks whether next season deviates from that level. The dual anchor model ($8.18) uses both: it starts with the customs volume-weighted buyer reference from the prior season, then adjusts for how much the March price has moved above or below that reference. The dual anchor captures both the buyer's baseline and the current market signal in a single equation (R² = 0.916, the highest of any specification tested).

All three converge between $8.00 and $9.00. The most likely outcome is a modest increase of 2-14% over last year's buying price of $8.35, placing the expected Apr-May average in the $8.50 to $9.50 range. The scenarios above and below reflect the honest uncertainty: the model cannot rule out a flat market or a significant increase, but it assigns both lower probability than the base case.