Figure 62
Where 2026 Stands: Pre-Season Quotes vs Prior Seasons
UB NL 5-8 oz sections ($/lb), monthly average by pack year month | Three-season comparison
$4.98
PY2023 VW Apr-Jul
$6.02
PY2024 VW Apr-Jul
$8.24
PY2025 VW Apr-Jul
$10.75
Current Quote (Mar 2026)
The buyer's dilemma. Current pre-season UB quotes for NL 5-8 oz sections stand at $10.75/lb, 30% above the PY2025 volume-weighted buying price of $8.24 and 79% above PY2024's $6.02. The three-season overlay shows the escalation: PY2023 traded in a narrow $4.69 to $5.75 band, PY2024 opened similarly but climbed steadily through the off-season, and PY2025 opened higher still and never pulled back. The question for PY2026 is whether the season opening brings the typical reversion from off-season levels, or whether the structural tightness (no inventory, reduced quota) sustains the elevated pricing. The Section 9 model points to a season opener in the $8.50 to $9.50 range, which would represent a pullback from $10.75 but an increase over last year's $8.24 buying price.
Source: Seafood Datasearch from Urner Barry