Market Price Analysis with Tariff Impact
Our statistical model forecasts snow crab wholesale prices with the addition of a projected 20% market price increase due to tariffs.
Snow Crab Price Model with Tariff: Historical & Forecast (2020-2025)
Simplified Tariff Impact Model: This forecast assumes a flat 20% increase in market prices starting from March 2025 when tariffs are implemented. The model accounts for anticipated price adjustments due to market demand changes in response to the tariff.
Tariff Forecast Explanation
This forecast shows the snow crab market expectations with a 20% price increase due to the implementation of tariffs. This simplified model applies the tariff percentage directly to the baseline forecast prices from March 2025 onward.
This model is based on an assumption that most of the price increase from Nov to Feb was based on anticipatory buying in the event of tariffs, meaning that tariffs are already priced in. Our two models, with and without tariffs, assume that if tariffs are not applied and appear off the table, prices will revert to a more normal scenario. But if tariffs apply, prices will be higher, but the market will begin adjusting to potentially reduced demand, so increased volume will push prices lower.
View our baseline forecast without tariffs for comparison.
About This Data
This forecast is derived from our baseline snow crab price model with a straightforward 20% increase applied to prices from March 2025 through December 2025 to represent the tariff impact. The confidence intervals are similarly adjusted.
Data source: NMFS, DFO, and trade flow data from U.S. and Canadian markets (2020-2025) with tariff markup calculations
