Price Model Performance
This chart shows our model's historical pricing accuracy against actual Snow Crab market prices from 2012-2024.
Snow Crab Price Model Historical Fit (2012-2024)
Overall Fit
MAPE: 0.50%
MAE: $0.58
RMSE: $0.91
Best Fitting Periods
2019: 0.47% MAPE
2024: 0.82% MAPE
2020: 1.17% MAPE
Challenging Periods
2015: 13.33% MAPE
2022: 5.86% MAPE
2023: 4.27% MAPE
Key Observations:
- Model performs well in stable market conditions (2019-2020)
- Larger errors during market transitions (2015, 2022)
- Successfully captures major price level shifts
- Recent performance shows good stability
- 95% confidence bands illustrate prediction uncertainty
- Most actual prices fall within confidence bounds